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%soviet[s89,jmc]		Soviet-Western relations

1. The liberals in the U.S. and the West generally have traditionally
taken a more benign view than conservatives have of the Soviet Union
and other countries ruled by communist parties.  They have criticized
policies, especially defense policies, they regard as excessively
anti-Soviet.  For this and other reasons, Soviet foreign policy
makers have always pinned their hopes, and occasional praise, on
the liberals.

2. However, the actual agreements that persist have been possible
only when they have been made by conservatives or at least with
substantial conservative support.  This situation is likely to
continue for the forseeable future.  Therefore, this discussion
emphasizes the possible agreements that can obtain that support.

3. Recent events in the Soviet Union, China, Poland and other
countries ruled by communist parties have greatly increased
the scope of possible agreements.   Maybe it is possible to
end the cold war and greatly reduce military expenditures
throughout the world.

4. There is no emergency requiring a rush.  The movement of
these countries in the direction of increased democracy,
greater freedom of information and towards more market-oriented
economies were not caused by Western policies.  The primary
cause was dissatisfaction with the domestic results of
previous policies.  This dissatisfaction was effective,
because it arose within the leadership of the communist
parties themselves.  The course it has taken has been
determined primarily by domestic events---including
the political activation of large segments of the
intellectual population and of the working class.

5. The result has been a demand for democracy almost precisely as
this term is understood in the West.  Thus it includes
freedom of speech, press and religion.  It also includes
free elections.

6. Long term issues play roles in Western politics that go
beyond their immediate policy consequences.  Namely, they
become part of the machinery of struggle for political
power by political parties and other groups.  Relations
with the Soviet Union is just such an issue.  The liberals
use the fear of war to fight the conservatives, and the
conservatives use fear of Soviet aggression to fight the
liberals.

7. The changes in the Soviet Union have changed
the views of all segments of Western population, i.e. have
made them more hopeful.  However, the relative positions
of liberals and conservatives have remained somewhat stable
on account of the role these positions play in Western
politics.  This doesn't prevent agreements with the
Soviet Union; it only makes them take somewhat longer
to achieve in ratifiable form.

8. In my opinion, the conservatives have had the better
argument in the past.  {\it Glasnost} has caused most
people in the West to accept many conservative contentions that
were previously rejected by most liberals.  These include
the following.

	a. Stalin was a criminal, and there was no way of
gaining his trust.  He didn't trust even those who were
absolutely loyal to him.  The hopes of Western liberals
that the West could gain his trust by ignoring his crimes
and being nice to him were entirely illusory.

	b. Soviet occupation of the Baltic countries was
an act of aggression.  Subsequent Soviet policies were
oppressive, and never succeeded in convincing the people
of these countries to give up their own national feelings.
The contention that these feelings were respected by
Soviet Government has proved false.

	c. The successive Soviet military interventions in
Eastern Europe, e.g. East Germany in 1953, Hungary in 1956,
Czechoslovakia in 1968 and the 1979 intervention in
Afghanistan were acts of aggression.

	d. Successive Soviet governments built up the Soviet
military machine to whatever the Soviet economy would allow
and beyond it.